By Glenn Hicks

Local MP says U.S. election result could bode well for Canada

Nov 9, 2018 | 4:00 PM

The future of the trade relationship between the United States and Canada is very much up in the air following the mid-term elections south of the border this week. But a local MP says the fact that the Democratic Party gained control of the House of Representatives Tuesday night may be a good thing.

Prince Albert MP, Conservative Randy Hoback, said while it is now a wait and see situation, he suggested the abnormal trade leanings of the Donald Trump presidency could now be altered.

“The Democats tend to be more protectionist than the Republicans, yet this hasn’t been a normal-style Republican president,” Hoback told paNOW. “In some ways it may be better for Canada that the Democrats [control] the House because they may look at things like the aluminium and steel tariffs and say ‘Canada is not a threat.”

The U.S. administration slapped the large tariffs on these products on both Canada and Mexico citing matters of national security.

Hoback said Democrats were now in a position to possibly pressure Trump to relent. He also pointed out that the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal, (USMCA), which replaces NAFTA, had not yet been ratified by any of the nations.

Battle ready

Predators set to defend title as new PGLL season approaches

5h ago

Riderville

Riders Have Options Heading into Tuesday CFL Draft

10h ago

Weekend hockey

PAGC set to host largest Senator's Cup tournament to date

11h ago

“Mexico has already made statements they will not ratify unless they see the aluminium and steel tariffs actually eliminated ,and now you’ve got a democratic house in the U.S. and [the Democrats] may look at things and say ‘ No, this is not what we want to see as far as the United States’ position in the world,’” Hoback said .

Hoback added there would be a lot more personal attacks on Trump because the Democrats would now control the various House committees and could prompt investigations that the previous Republican-controlled committees would not take on.

Meanwhile experts are predicting the new USMCA trade deal may not be ratified by well into 2019 or even until 2020.

They expect the pact will eventually gain approval, but until it’s ratified businesses will have to deal with considerable unknowns as they try to make longer-term decisions on export strategy and investments.

“There will be a lot of uncertainty for a number of months and that uncertainty is not good for Canadian business interests,” Lawrence Herman, a Toronto-based trade lawyer with Herman and Associates said. “There is a chance that the Democrats would agree to have this deal approved. On the other hand, as we’ve heard, there are those in the Democratic party who don’t want to give Trump and the Republicans any kind of break whatsoever.”

Dan Ujczo, an Ohio-based international trade specialist, said it will be a “political miracle” to have the USMCA voted on in the spring.

March, he added, is the earliest the deal could be voted on in Congress. Before that, the practical aspects of choosing a new speaker and committee chairs’ settling into their positions will take up considerable time. He also noted the 2020 U.S. election season will likely begin as early as spring 2019.

“We’ll be lucky to get a vote in 2019,” Ujczo, a partner in the law firm Dickinson Wright, said. “I think we’ve got to realistically look at 2020.”

U.S. trade deals must be passed by both the House and the Senate, where the Republicans strengthened their majority in Tuesday’s vote.

With files from Michael Joel Hansen and The Canadian Press

glenn.hicks@jpbg.ca

On Twitter:@princealbertnow